an Unnecessary Pandemic election in Canada
on August 15th, Justin Trudeau dissolved Parliament kicking off the 2021 Canadian federal election, however this was not the cakewalk to victory many thought it would be. just hours before the dissolution of Parliament, Kabul had fallen to the Taliban which created a political nightmare for Trudeau and his government who were now in campaign mode. for weeks on end, Trudeau was criticized for the timing of the election call given the crisis in Afghanistan but also growing concerns of a fourth wave of COVID-19.
Trudeau's folly:
opposition leaders were quickly on the attack questioning Trudeau’s leadership and the race quickly became less of a majority win scenario for Trudeau and a significantly tight race for who forms government. after weeks of campaigning across the country and the main party leaders seeking to sell their vision for the future of Canada, Canadians went to the polls on September 20th, delivering an almost identical Minority Parliament to that of the 2019 election.
after an intense battle to fend off the Conservatives in the last few weeks of the election, the Liberals were relieved to win another minority. however, this may have an effect on the Trudeau brand. The onus of calling a $600 million election for the purposes of winning a majority rests with Trudeau, and falling short of that majority has bruised his brand. while he may be able to hold onto power for another 18-24 months, the question is, how long does Trudeau want to remain at the helm of the Liberal Party and will we start to see some leadership rumblings within his caucus?
The Conservative Response:
after his rise to the party's leadership from the right as a “True Blue Conservative”, Erin O'Toole ran by pushing his party to the center. many social conservatives are furious now that he has lost and failed to increase his seat count more than 121 seats Andrew Sheer won in 2019. the political knives are being sharpened from within the caucus with many socially conservative MPs furious with the sudden shift to the center. while O'Toole's concession speech was more of a victory-style speech aimed at those who want him out, his job security is in jeopardy.
Progressives in Canada lose big too:
the New Democratic Party of Canada’s leader Jagmeet Singh is a popular leader, who shows a great deal of authenticity in the very cold world of politics, but Canadians are not sold on his party's plan. after two elections, he has not seen much success in the party’s fortune. he is probably safe as leader for now, as there’s no appetite within the NDP for a leadership race. he continues to hold the balance of power in this minority Parliament, and many would agree that Trudeau would be better off turning to Singh’s NDP as a dancing partner in what will likely be a hyper-partisan and contentious parliament. this can prove to be an opportunity for the NDP to advance items such as pharmacare, dental care, and a universal basic income.
don't forget about...Quebec?
while no one outside Quebec really cares about the Bloc Quebecois, they return to the House with one extra seat from the 32 they secured in 2019. despite the Premier of Quebec, François Legault’s push to help his friend Erin O’Toole rise to power, the Bloc was able to hold onto its base as the defender of Quebec's interest in Parliament. while the Liberals and Bloc were in a heated and pretty nasty battle for the most seats in Quebec, Yves-Francois Balnchet’s leadership is safe for now as he too holds the balance of power in this minority parliament.